Royals Best wOBA+ Single Seasons

As far as I know, there's no source to look up a wOBA+ stat. A plus stat, such as OPS+ or ERA+, compares a stat against a league average, thereby adjusting for era. WOBA+ would be figured like so: 100 x (wOBA/lg wOBA), where 100 is exactly average for that given year, anything greater than 100 is above average and vice versa. I've been thinking this would be the ultimate hitting stat, and started crunching numbers for Royals players. After I'd crunched a bunch, I came across a discussion on wOBA creator Tom Tango's web site in which Tango says he's "not in favor of wOBA+" because he prefers wRC+ (weighted runs created).  WRC is directly related to wOBA, but a little more complex. I don't entirely understand it, but Fangraphs gives the definition as "total runs created based of wOBA. It is calculated as (((wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA." Tango prefers it because it is park adjusted. Tango is on a higher plane than me when it comes to stats, so I don't doubt wRC+ is a better stat than wOBA+. But wOBA just makes a lot of sense to me. I've been nerding out hardcore on Royals historical wOBA and wOBA+.

Here are the top 20 individual seasons by wOBA+ in Royals history (min. 400 plate appearances or a similar ratio in shortened seasons):

1. George Brett 1980: 146

2. John Mayberry 1972: 136

3. John Mayberry 1975: 134

4. George Brett 1986: 133

5. Danny Tartabull 1991: 132

6. John Mayberry 1973: 126

7. Mike Fiore 1969: 126

8. Amos Otis 1978: 126

9. Hal McRae 1976: 125

10. George Brett 1983: 125

11. Mike Sweeney 2002: 125

12. George Brett 1988: 123

13. George Brett 1990: 122

14. Willie Aikens 1983: 122

15. Carlos Beltran 2003: 122

16. Hal McRae 1982: 121

17. George Brett 1979: 121

18. Bob Hamelin 1994: 121

19. George Brett 1976: 121

20. Danny Tartabull 1988: 121

Things that jumped out at me as I crunched the numbers:

• Danny Tartabull absolutely crushed from 1987-91. Dude has three of the top 21 seasons in Royals history
• David DeJesus truly has been the model of consistent decency. Here are his wOBA+ numbers from 2004-09: 99, 106, 104, 97, 107, 101. This year he has jumped out to 117. We can expect that to fall before the year is out.
• Hal McRae mashed for a bunch of years. He had at least 400 PAs between 1974-1983 and was above average every year, and seven times was 110 or better, with three seasons of 120 or better.
• Steve Balboni's 1985, the year of his team record 36 HRs, was a sad 105.
• John Mayberry's 1972-75 seasons. Go take a look at these gaudy stats. He had that elusive combination of power and plate discipline. Why did the Royals let him go after '77? Baseball-Reference says he was "purchased" by Toronto.
• Mike Fiore's 1969 season at #7. Huh? The rookie had an incredible season with a .420 OBP and 3.0 WAR. He was never a full-time player again. Must be a story there.

Career wOBA Leaders Graph

click to embiggen

Nothing really to do with Kansas City, but I wanted to see the career leaders in wOBA, the best stat in THE HISTORY OF WHATEVER! I think the only one of these players to play for a Kansas City team is "Sliding" Billy Hamilton, who broke into the bigs as a 22 year old rookie with the 1888 American Association Kansas City Cowboys. He played for KC again in 1889. He's featured in the lower right of the blog header above.

It turns out Babe Ruth was pretty good.

Batting Second, Jason Kendall

I generally don't put too much importance on how managers order their batting lineup, but I, along with everyone else in the Royals nerdosphere, have been flabbergasted by new skipper Ned Yost repeatedly slotting Jason Kendall in the two spot. In an attempt to quantify just how stupid this is, I plugged the Royals most common starting nine into the "Lineup Analysis" tool at Baseball Musings. You plug in nine players' on-base and slugging percentages, and the tool spits out what should be the best and worst 30 lineups for those players. I used stats from this season only. Using the tool's model based on the 1959-2004 seasons, the best Royals lineup should score 4.967 runs/game, and would look like this:

DeJesus
Butler
Callaspo
Aviles
Guillen
Podsednik
Maier
Betancourt
Kendall

while the worst should score 4.654 runs/game and would look like this:

Callaspo
Kendall
Aviles
Betancourt
Podsednik
DeJesus
Butler
Maier
Guillen

The difference in runs/game is .313, which would equal 50.7 runs over 162 games. That's a lot of runs; the  best lineup should get around five more wins than the worst. Maybe lineups are more important than I thought.

You may have noticed Kendall bats ninth in the best lineup and, of course, second in the worst. But it's worse than that: Kendall bats ninth in EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THE THIRTY BEST LINEUPS. He bats second in the eight worst lineups, and in 24 of the worst 30. Wow.

(By the way, the Royals are scoring 4.571 runs/game, which is less than the supposed worst possible lineup should give them...)

Dayton Moore Featured In Dilbert Strip

(Click to enlarge.)

Why I Cannot Trust The Process

There is a welcome wave of optimism regarding the talent brewing in the Royals minor league system. Royals fans, always looking for any shard of hope to cling to, seem to be ever so slightly allowing themselves to imagine a not-too distant future with a roster bursting with home grown players competing for an AL Central crown. And I share in the hope.

But...I can't believe in a rational way. In Dayton's words, “Our goal... is to have the majority of our 25-man roster be homegrown players.” Sounds good. The problem - if DM is still calling the major league shots - is the other 10, 11, 12 spots. The free agent and trade acquisitions. Even a team that scouts and drafts better than most cannot afford a GM who makes the kinds of decisions at the big league level that DM has made.

Even if a handful of his draft picks turn into top quality players, I don't trust that he'll be able to fill out the rest of the roster competently. For the Royals to compete, they'll need a GM who excels in all areas, not just one. If Moore's strength lies in finding and developing raw talent, then great - let him work in scouting, drafting and development. But we're going to need someone a lot more forward-thinking when it comes to filling a complete big-league roster before I'll start believing. I hope I'm wrong and all of Dayton's kids are stars, and the Royals don't need savvy decision-making in free agency or trades to complete the picture. I'm just not holding my breath.
 

(6/9 update: Wow, the great Rob Neyer and I were sharing a wavelength. Neyer has a new post up titled "Are the Royals looking good in 2012?" in which he says if the Royals are to get over the top, "That's going to take a little extra oomph, in the form of a brilliant trade or a particularly canny free-agent signing. And this organization hasn't demonstrated any propensity for those things since the 1970s.")
 
(6/10 update: Be sure to check out this great rebuttal to my above post by "kcemigre" over on Royals Review.)

Photos of KC Athletics Hank Bauer, Joe Gordon and Roger Maris

The great Uni Watch website has a series going in which old wire service photos are highlighted. Today's entry starts off with a couple of KC A's photos. The first is a 1961 shot of outfielder Hank Bauer and manager Joe Gordon at spring training. The caption notes that the A's asked Bauer to come to camp early to help with the coaching; just 60 games into the season, Gordon's first as A's manager, Bauer replaced Gordon as manager. Gordon went on to be the first Royals manager in 1969.

The second picture shows Roger Maris sporting an A's jacket, signing an autograph at "a Kansas City supermarket." I love this photo because Roger is wearing an A's jacket five weeks after being traded to the Yankees. Maris was traded in a seven-player deal (that included Hank Bauer) on December 11, 1959.

Update On Municipal Stadium Marker

Jeff Logan, president of the Kansas City Baseball Historical Society, saw my previous post about the disappearance of the Municipal Stadium marker, and picked up the phone to call the city. He managed to get through red tape far enough to learn that the marker is being stored in a parks and recreation building somewhere. He was told the company trying to build homes on the former site of the stadium wanted the marker removed. That business is apparently DK Homes.

The marker being removed is a disgrace to the great legacy of Kansas City baseball. I certainly hope the marker will be returned, and soon, but I just don't think that's the plan. The marker was anchored in concrete; If you look at the picture I posted of the now barren corner, it's apparent that new concrete has been laid since the marker was removed. Sad. If anyone reading this has any further information or ideas on what could be done, let me know.