Various Royals Pitcher Records, 2010

Following up on my previous post, here is what the 2010 Royals starters records would look like under the different measurements proposed ("Trad" is the traditional W-L measure):

In addition to better reflecting a pitcher's performance, another benefit of the new records is that every start is counted, as opposed to the traditional record where many no decisions just get tossed out. 

Finding A Better Pitcher's Record

The usefulness of a pitcher's win/loss record is close to nil. In the oldy time days when men were men and pitchers finished what they started, wins had some meaning. Now, of course, bullpens have a large hand in nearly every game. Combine that with a pitcher's lack of control over run support, and you have yourself a pretty worthless stat.

But there is something nice about two numbers comparing "good" vs. "bad" starts. So here I will apply a few different methodologies to the current Royals staff and see how some alternative records come out:

Quality start record (a "win" being any start in which the pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three earned runs or fewer):

Luke Hochevar: 6-5
Jeff Francis: 7-3
Kyle Davies: 3-6
Bruce Chen: 4-3
Sean O'Sullivan: 3-4

Win probability record (a "win" being a start with a positive win probability added):

Luke Hochevar: 5-6

Jeff Francis: 5-5

Kyle Davies: 1-8

Bruce Chen: 4-3

Sean O'Sullivan: 5-2

Game score record (a "win" being a game score over 50):

Luke Hochevar: 4-7

Jeff Francis: 5-5

Kyle Davies: 2-7

Bruce Chen: 4-3

Sean O'Sullivan: 4-3

Worst Games Ever

Tonight's 19-1 beat-down at the hands of the Cleveland Indians is truly one for the Royals history books.

Number of times the Royals have allowed:

17 runs: 9

18 runs: 6

19 runs: 5

20 runs: 0

21 runs: 2

22 runs: 1

While allowing 17 or 18 runs does not come around often, you are really entering rarefied territory at 19. It has happened only eight times in 42.25 seasons, or once every 838 games.

The 18 run margin of defeat is even more rare—it is the worst differential in club history, and just the third time it has occurred. The first was in a 21-3 loss in 2000, and the second was less than a year ago when the Royals lost by an identical 19-1 score. It took 31 seasons for the Royals to lose by 18, but they've accomplished it three times in the last 12 years.

Seven of the eight worst runs allowed games have come in Kansas City. I wish I had some brilliant theory as to why that is, but I am dumbfounded.

The eight games in which the Royals allowed 19 or more runs, the pitching lowlights (and how they fared in their next game):

• 19-3
  July 28, 1973 vs. Angels
  Ken Wright .2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, Bruce Dal Canton .1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, Gene Garber 5.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 4 BB
  (W 7-0 vs. Angels)
  
• 22-11
  April 12, 1994 vs. A's
  Kevin Appier 3.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, Stan Belinda 1.0 IP, 2 H, 8 R, 2 ER, 4 BB
  (W 2-1 vs. Red Sox)
  
• 21-3
  June 18, 2000 vs. A's
  Jeff D'Amico 2.0 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 5 BB, Miguel Batista 1.0 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 BB
  (W 8-6 at Angels)
  
• 19-3
  September 27, 2003 vs. White Sox
  Jamey Wright 2.1 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, Kris Wilson 2.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, Brad Voyles 2.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB
  (L 1-5 vs. White Sox)
  
• 21-6
  August 25, 2004 at Angels
  Mike Wood 3.1 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, Shawn Camp 6 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, Scott Sullivan 2.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 BB
  (W 7-3 at Mariners)
  
• 19-4
  July 21, 2008 vs. Tigers
  Luke Hochevar 5.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, Jimmy Gobble 1.0 IP, 7 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 4 BB
  (L 1-7 vs. Tigers)
  
• 19-1
  July 26, 2010 vs. Twins (I was there!)
  Zack Greinke 4.0 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, Kanekoa Texeira 1.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB
  (L 2-11 vs. Twins)
  
• 19-1
  May 16, 2011 vs. Indians
  Kyle Davies .1 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, Vin Mazzaro 2.1 IP, 11 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 3 BB
  (The Royals host me and others at Blog Your Way To The K)

Royals Uni With Striped Stirrups

With thanks to Tim E. O'Brien, who has provided a fantastic Photoshop template to play with uniform mockups, I give you the classic Royals uniform with one tweak: striped stirrups. I think the Royals are one of the best looking teams in sports, and if they ever change their hat design or classic look, I will lead the riot at Kauffman Stadium. (I prefer to pretend the whole black phase never happened.) About the only possible improvement to their current uniform would be striped stirrups (and of course for players to all cuff their pants just below the knee to show them off). Here is how that might look:

Royals Bullpen Usage

Tim Collins is a great story and has pitched well so far, but Ned Yost's seeming over-usage of him is starting to get a little puzzling.

Jeremy Jeffress, with his 3.78 FIP and .254 wOBA against, would be my choice to start carrying a heavier load while lightening Collins's.

A's Early Use Of Radar Gun

From 1957 comes a story about the Kansas City A's trying out an "electronic scout," better known today as a radar gun. It only weighed 26 pounds!

March 29, 1957 Kansas City Call

Francoeur's Improved Approach In The Early Going

Jeff Francoeur's six years of terrible plate discipline between 2005-10 made his signing with the Royals a tough pill to swallow for saber-nerds like me. But, while it is still too early to declare him a changed man, the early returns from Frenchy the Royal are encouraging. This could all be a small sample size mirage, but for now, let's hope that hitting coach Kevin Seitzer has worked some Jedi mind tricks on Francoeur and this can keep up through the season.

He has swung at half of the pitches he has seen, which is a significant drop from the 60% swing rate he had last year and even his career low of 56% in 2008. (The 2011 average so far is 45%.) Interestingly, the drop-off in swings is coming mostly on strikes, not balls out of the zone. He is swinging at 39% of balls out of the zone (O-Swing%), which is higher than his career norm. He is being more selective about which pitches in the zone he hacks at, with his Zone-Swing% falling off a cliff all the way to the league-average of 65%. That increased selectivity is resulting into a near-league average swinging strike percentage of 9%.

Not surprisingly, the improved selectivity has resulted in better contact rates. His 83% overall contact rate betters the league average by 2%, his Zone-Contact% is 3% better than league-average, and his Outside-the-zone-Contact% is 6% above average.

Six full years of data certainly carries more weight than the 84 plate appearances his 2011 rates are based on, and he is a near-lock to regress towards his career norms. But these early numbers are surprising, and something to watch as the season marches on.

All numbers from Fangraphs.com.