2010–2012 fWAR All-Stars

Here's what the ideal 25 man roster might look like going by Fangraphs WAR put up over the last three seasons. I love that Miguel Cabrera has the highest fWAR in the majors over that stretch.

• 2008–2010 fWAR All-Stars

• 2009–2011 fWAR All-Stars

2012 Royals In Review

 It was a bad year. Good night folks!

The starting pitchers seem to get the lion's share of the blame for the Royals poor record, but the offense was equally at fault. Combine the starters and relievers performance as measured by win probability added, and the arms come out looking a whole lot better than the bats:

But, yes, the starters were a problem. Here's how stark the difference was between the starters and relievers by WPA:

Notice that the hitters and starters come out with almost the exact same win probability added.

While that is a huge spread between the starters and relievers, it's not that unusual. Three AL teams had a larger difference in WPA between their relievers and starters (Twins, Orioles, and Indians). (Only the Tigers, Angels, and White Sox starters posted more WPA than their bullpens. Only the Mariners and Angels bullpens had negative WPA.)

The bullpen was only fifth in the AL in WPA, but they led the loop in fWAR. Part of that comes from being used so much thanks to the weak rotation. The bullpen was only fifth in K% and ninth in BB%, but limited homers better than any other AL 'pen. Their 7.3 fWAR was the highest in team history and resulted in the fourth time the Royals bullpen has led the league in fWAR:

As for the rotation, they posted the fourth worst adjusted FIP in team history with an even worse adjusted ERA:

Maybe the less said about the rotation the better.

The offense was fourth in the AL in batting average and stole bases pretty well but struggled to score runs. If this were the 1970s or prior, that might be confusing, but of course the Royals were bad in the areas that actually correlate to scoring runs: Getting on base and hitting for power.

This chart shows the team rank in various offensive categories (I've explained or linked to explanations of some of the stats in the caption):

ISO, wOBA, wRC+, BsR=base-running of the non stealing variety, SBr = (.2 x SB)+(-.4 x CS), WPA

It's kind of amazing they had the lowest homerun, walk, and strikeout rates. They loved to put the ball in play. If it's true that former hitting coach Kevin Seitzer's philosophy focused on hitting for average, I'm glad they let him go. It's ironic considering Seitzer was one of the best on-base guys in team history as a player.

Here's a similar chart for the pitchers:

ERA-, FIP-, xFIP-, OPS=opponents OPS, WPA, QS=percentage of games with a quality start, GmSc=game score average

A not great but not terrible K rate, a terrible walk rate, and a good home runs against rate led to a middle of the pack FIP but only a tenth place finish in runs allowed.

Moving on to the confusing world of defense:

"Eff" is defensive efficiency, which is a simple measure of what percentage of balls in play the defense turned into outs. The Royals were at 68.9%, worst in the AL. The fact that UZR and DRS rate the Royals a little better suggested to me that spacious Kauffman Stadium suppresses defensive efficiency. Except Baseball Prospectus has a park adjusted defensive efficiency...and the Royals are still last. So the Royals were at best mediocre on defense and possibly really terrible. I felt good whenever a ball was hit to the left side of the field and nervous when it was hit to the right side.

The end!

Baseball Bloggers Alliance AL Awards Ballot

Baseball! Bloggers! Awards! This is the first year I am participating in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance awards voting. I've spent way too much time poring over the numbers trying to make my picks. My number ones were not difficult, but the second and third spots drove me crazy for some reason.

Stan Musial Award (MVP)

1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Robinson Cano

For all the controversy over Trout v. Cabrera, this is an easy one for me. Cabrera had a great year...and Trout was significantly better. Cabrera was the better hitter by only the slightest of margins, and Trout ran the bases like Rickey and fielded like Willie.

Walter Johnson Award (Pitcher)

1. Justin Verlander
2. David Price
3. Felix Hernandez

Price had a slight edge in raw ERA to Verlander, but when park adjusted, Verlander comes out ahead. Add to that better fielder-independent numbers for Verlander, plus his league-leading innings pitched, and Verlander is the easy choice. The ordering of Price and Hernandez could go either way, but I liked Price's consistency. He had a quality start a league-leading 81% of the time he took the mound.

Goose Gossage Award (Reliever)

1. Fernando Rodney
2. Jake McGee
3. Jim Johnson

So, I'd never heard of Jake McGee when I started looking at AL relievers. McGee was apparently used as Tampa Bay's "fireman" this year, which I love. The lefty struck out 34% of the batters he faced and only walked 5%. Jim Johnson doesn't have impressive strikeout totals, but he did lead the league in both saves and shutdowns, while only "melting down" three times.

Willie Mays Award (Rookie)

1. Mike Trout
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jarrod Parker

Connie Mack Award (Manager)

1. Buck Showalter
2. Bob Melvin

I really don't know how to go about picking managers other than from teams that outperform their "on-paper" expectations. The O's and A's certainly epitomized that this year.

2012 Royals Pitcher wOBA & WPA Records

wOBA Against

.251 Francisley Bueno

.269 Aaron Crow

.280 Kelvin Herrera

.281 Jeremy Guthrie

.288 Greg Holland

.292 Felipe Paulino

.302 Jose Mijares

.302 Tim Collins

.308 Jonathan Broxton

.326 Louis Coleman

.332 Luis Mendoza

.334 Nate Adcock

.341 Danny Duffy

.347 Bruce Chen

.350 Vin Mazzaro

.351 Luke Hochevar

.352 Everett Teaford

.364 Will Smith

.376 Jeremy Jeffress

.400 Jonathan Sanchez

wOBA = ((.688 x BB) + (.719 x HBP) + (.88 x 1B) + (1.251 x 2B) + (1.585 x 3B) + (2.048 x HR))/PA

minimum 50 batters faced; average wOBA for 2012 was .315

WPA Records

Jeremy Guthrie 9-5

Felipe Paulino 4-3

Vin Mazzaro 3-3

Danny Duffy 3-3

Luis Mendoza 12-13

Bruce Chen 14-20

Everett Teaford 2-3

Luke Hochevar 11-21

Jonathan Sanchez 4-8

Will Smith 5-11

team total: 68-94

a "win" is a start with a positive win probability added

Color Video Of Satchel Paige Pitching For The Kansas City Royals In 1948

This rather amazing video has just surfaced on YouTube. The game is being played in Los Angeles at Wrigley Field. The description of the video says the date was November 7, 1948, which matches up exactly with a doubleheader reported on in the November 17, 1948 The Sporting News. Satchel had for years taken part in post-season tours pitching against Dizzy Dean and then Bob Feller, but in 1948 his foils were Indians teammates Gene Bearden and Bob Lemon (who managed the MLB KC Royals between 1970-72). Bearden is not a well known player these days, but was a sensation in '48 after going 20-7 with an AL best 2.43 ERA and helping the Indians to the World Series crown. The lefty #30 seen starting around the 23 second mark is Bearden. According to commenters on YouTube, some of the people in the crowd shots are MGM bigwigs, which matches up with another article in the same issue of The Sporting News about Bearden having been cast in the Jimmy Stewart movie The Stratton Story. The article even mentions that Bearden sat in the MGM box for the second half of the twin bill that day. Satchel and Bearden both appeared as themselves in another movie, The Kid From Cleveland, around the same time.

Of more interest to KC fans may be Satchel Paige pitching for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals were organized by Negro Leagues and KC Monarchs great Chet Brewer and were regulars in California winter ball for many years. The team did not have a direct connection to KC, but did feature many Monarchs players. I imagine Brewer chose the name in an attempt to borrow some of the cachet the Monarchs name had. In addition to Brewer and Paige, the November 7, 1948 doubleheader featured one-time Monarchs Jesse Williams, Chico Renfroe, Cool Papa Bell, Jim LaMarque, and Herb Souell.

The Royals had no trouble with Bearden in the opening game, and Satchel exited with a 7-2 lead after seven innings, but Jim LaMarque got roughed up as Bearden's "All-Stars" stormed back to win 8-7. The Royals took the sunset-shortened second game 5-2. Here is the full account from The Sporting News:

September/October Royals Schedule Desktop

Salvador "Salvy Still Sounds Weird To Me" Perez Says, "NO CALENDAR SHALL PASS"

Painfully Useless Royals Doubleheader Trivia

• The Royals have played the Rangers in seven doubleheaders in Kansas City. Texas won the first game of the first of those doubleheaders on July 2, 1972. Since then, the Royals have gone 13-0.

• The Royals and Yankees have hooked up in 12 doubleheaders, but only one of them was played in KC.

• The Royals have played more doubleheaders against Oakland than any other team (24).

• 1996 and 2011 are the only years in which the Royals have played zero doubleheaders.

• Between June 16-20, 1969, the Royals played three doubleheaders, and no singleheaders.

• Five back-to-back doubleheaders in club history:
September 21 (vs OAK) and 22 (vs WAS), 1970
September 25 (@ WAS) and 26 (vs WAS), 1971
July 15 (@ CHI) and 16 (@ CHI), 1976
September 14 (@ OAK) and 15 (vs OAK), 1977
August 13 (@ DET) and 14 (@ MIL), 1983

• The Royals have played 215 twin bills, 110 on the road, 105 at home.

• The Royals have played well in doubleheaders with a record of 232-198 (.540). They are 120-95 in first games and 112-103 in second games.