A Disaster

Here is how I was guessing/projecting right field and the starting pitchers would shape up for 2013 before the Shields/Myers trade:

	PA	wOBA	WAR
Wil Myers	407	0.330	1.2
Jeff Francoeur	192	0.310	0.2
	IP	ERA	WAR
J. Guthrie	180	4.00	1.0
Ervin Santana	180	4.50	-0.1
Luis Mendoza	110	4.30	0.2
Jake Odorizzi	110	4.30	0.2
Bruce Chen	110	4.50	0.0
L. Hochevar	100	5.40	-1.0
Felipe Paulino	70	4.20	0.2
Danny Duffy	70	4.20	0.2
			2.1 total

And here are my guesses after the trade:

	PA	wOBA	WAR
Jeff Francoeur	590	0.310	0.7
x	40	0.315	0.1
	IP	ERA	WAR
James Shields	200	3.60	2.2
J. Guthrie	180	4.00	1.0
Ervin Santana	170	4.50	-0.1
Wade Davis	140	4.45	0.0
Bruce Chen	80	4.50	0.0
Felipe Paulino	60	4.20	0.2
Danny Duffy	60	4.20	0.2
Luis Mendoza	40	4.30	0.1
L. Hochevar	54	5.40	-0.5
			3.9 total

So that's a +1.8 win difference, but the increase in innings pitched by the starters decreases my prediction for bullpen WAR by -.5 for a grand total of +1.3 wins in 2013. My best guess is that the trade improved the Royals from roughly 80 wins to 81. If the Royals somehow figured they were sitting closer to 86-90 wins, a one win improvement would be significant since it could make the difference in winning the division. If my guess is closer to the truth, such a marginal improvement is meaningless. That's saying nothing of the 2015—2018 seasons after Shields's contract is up and Wil Myers is in his prime in Tampa Bay.

My knee jerk reaction to the trade was that it was terrible. After mulling it over for a day and trying to find the positives, I still think it was a disaster. I hope I'm wrong.