The usefulness of a pitcher's win/loss record is close to nil. In the oldy time days when men were men and pitchers finished what they started, wins had some meaning. Now, of course, bullpens have a large hand in nearly every game. Combine that with a pitcher's lack of control over run support, and you have yourself a pretty worthless stat.
But there is something nice about two numbers comparing "good" vs. "bad" starts. So here I will apply a few different methodologies to the current Royals staff and see how some alternative records come out:
Quality start record (a "win" being any start in which the pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three earned runs or fewer):
Luke Hochevar: 6-5
Jeff Francis: 7-3
Kyle Davies: 3-6
Bruce Chen: 4-3
Sean O'Sullivan: 3-4
Win probability record (a "win" being a start with a positive win probability added):
Game score record (a "win" being a game score over 50):
But there is something nice about two numbers comparing "good" vs. "bad" starts. So here I will apply a few different methodologies to the current Royals staff and see how some alternative records come out:
Quality start record (a "win" being any start in which the pitcher goes six or more innings and allows three earned runs or fewer):
Luke Hochevar: 6-5
Jeff Francis: 7-3
Kyle Davies: 3-6
Bruce Chen: 4-3
Sean O'Sullivan: 3-4
Win probability record (a "win" being a start with a positive win probability added):
Luke Hochevar: 5-6
Jeff Francis: 5-5
Kyle Davies: 1-8
Bruce Chen: 4-3
Sean O'Sullivan: 5-2
Game score record (a "win" being a game score over 50):
Luke Hochevar: 4-7
Jeff Francis: 5-5
Kyle Davies: 2-7
Bruce Chen: 4-3
Sean O'Sullivan: 4-3
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