How Bad Are The 2011 Royals Starters?

Going by the things pitchers have the most control over (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches and homers) the 2011 Royals starting pitching is on its way to being the second worst in franchise history, right up there with the dismal 2005-06 seasons. Here is a look at the best and worst starting pitching performances in franchise history by FIP- (lower is better):

source: Fangraphs

Escobar's Hot Streak Visualized

Ever since my previous post about Alcides Escobar's historically awful start as measured by win probability added (WPA), he has gone on a hitting tear. In the last seven games, he is 14-for-25 with a walk and a line of .560/.577/.760. He has had a positive WPA in each game, and that game-by-game graph I posted comparing him to Neifi Perez's modern record for worst WPA season looks a whole lot better after Esco's hot week:

through 61 games compared to 68 games

Esco obviously won't be able to keep up this pace, but if he has come out of his terrible early season slump and can hit just a little, the Royals have a very special shortstop on their hands.

Escobar Entering Scary Bad Hitting Territory

Alcides Escobar's complete lack of hitting has been monstrously hurtful to the Royals chances of winning games. Neifi Perez's record -6.8 win probability added (WPA) in 2002 (worst in MLB since 1950, which is as far back as Baseball-Reference's WPA goes) is in jeopardy. After 61 games this year, Escobar is already down to a -3.2; after the same number of games in 2002, Perez was "only" at -2.0. At Escobar's current pace, he would finish the year with an unthinkable -8.5.

If the season ended today, Escobar would already own the fourth worst WPA in Royals history:

Rk	Player	WPA	PA	Year	OPS+
1	Neifi Perez	-6.819	585	2002	44
2	Angel Berroa	-3.448	503	2006	52
3	Angel Salazar	-3.437	332	1987	23
4	Alcides Escobar	-3.218	234	2011	38
5	Greg Gagne	-2.923	581	1993	89
6	Tony Pena	-2.902	536	2007	68
7	Jason Kendall	-2.832	490	2010	71
8	Cookie Rojas	-2.828	409	1970	73
9	John Buck	-2.818	430	2005	79
10	David Howard	-2.805	485	1996	52

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 6/8/2011

The question that has to be answered is how much Escobar has to hit to justify keeping him in the lineup long-term. I don't have an exact answer for that, but I do feel sure he has to do better than this. I'm all for continuing to play him everyday for the rest of the year in the hopes the bat comes around just the slightest, because his defense is a marvel. But so far, that glove is paired with one of the most detrimental bats in history.