Monday, December 10, 2012

A Disaster

Here is how I was guessing/projecting right field and the starting pitchers would shape up for 2013 before the Shields/Myers trade:

PA wOBA WAR
Wil Myers 407 0.330 1.2
Jeff Francoeur 192 0.310 0.2
IP ERA WAR
J. Guthrie 180 4.00 1.0
Ervin Santana 180 4.50 -0.1
Luis Mendoza 110 4.30 0.2
Jake Odorizzi 110 4.30 0.2
Bruce Chen 110 4.50 0.0
L. Hochevar 100 5.40 -1.0
Felipe Paulino 70 4.20 0.2
Danny Duffy 70 4.20 0.2
2.1 total

And here are my guesses after the trade:

PA wOBA WAR
Jeff Francoeur 590 0.310 0.7
x 40 0.315 0.1
IP ERA WAR
James Shields 200 3.60 2.2
J. Guthrie 180 4.00 1.0
Ervin Santana 170 4.50 -0.1
Wade Davis 140 4.45 0.0
Bruce Chen 80 4.50 0.0
Felipe Paulino 60 4.20 0.2
Danny Duffy 60 4.20 0.2
Luis Mendoza 40 4.30 0.1
L. Hochevar 54 5.40 -0.5
3.9 total

So that's a +1.8 win difference, but the increase in innings pitched by the starters decreases my prediction for bullpen WAR by -.5 for a grand total of +1.3 wins in 2013. My best guess is that the trade improved the Royals from roughly 80 wins to 81. If the Royals somehow figured they were sitting closer to 86-90 wins, a one win improvement would be significant since it could make the difference in winning the division. If my guess is closer to the truth, such a marginal improvement is meaningless. That's saying nothing of the 2015—2018 seasons after Shields's contract is up and Wil Myers is in his prime in Tampa Bay.

My knee jerk reaction to the trade was that it was terrible. After mulling it over for a day and trying to find the positives, I still think it was a disaster. I hope I'm wrong.

2 comments:

  1. The back of our napkins look the same. I'd extend the error bar a bit and call it a 76-84 win team, as constituted. That's betting on a bounceback year from Frenchy + accounting for normal volatility.

    Wil Myers may have ~65% chance of putting up 20 WAR over his 6 team-controlled years. Shields will not produce 13 WAR (20*.65) in his 2 years. 4 wins/year for the trusty workhorse would be amazing.

    This is all without even discussing the rest of the deal, which would be like punching myself in the Jimmy. I can't do it. There's always liquor.

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  2. it's upsetting that half of shields' time with the royals will be with frenchy and chen being overpaid all season

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