Thursday, December 9, 2010

Premature Look At The 2011 Lineup

If you're like me and a Royals fan, you're bummed out by the recent signings of out-machines Jeff Francoeur & Melky Cabrera and the specter of a Zack Greinke trade. 2011 is going to be another brutal year for the Royals.

To wallow in it, I plugged Bill James's 2011 projections (found on for a potential Royals lineup into Baseball Musing's lineup optimizer. But it actually made me feel marginally better. James is projecting big improvements from Kila and Alex. If they live up to these numbers, 2011 will be much more bearable.

Below would be the optimum batting order for these players according to Baseball Musing's tool, which would be expected to score 4.9 runs/game, or 794 over 162 games. That's insanely high -- only the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays scored that many in 2010. But hey, makes for some fun "maybe they won't be that bad..." off-season dreaming. If everything breaks our way, maybe we'll only lose 85 games!

First number is James's projected OBP, second is SLG:

1. Kila (.375/.451)
2. Billy (.377/.476)
3. Aviles (.320/.414)
4. Gordon (.356/.455)
5. Francoeur (.318/.425)
6. Pena (.327/.400)
7. Getz (.333/.339)
8. Yunicorn (.293/.397)
9. Blanco (.361/.337)

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